Obama discussed his professorial leadership style in a recent interview with U.S. News & World Report. He said he is not afraid of doubt and is comfortable with uncertainty: "Because these are tough questions, you are always dealing to some degree with probabilities. You're never 100 percent certain that the course of action you're choosing is going to work. What you can have confidence in is that the probability of it working is higher than the other options available to you. But that still leaves some uncertainty, which I think can be stressful, and that's part of the reason why it's so important to be willing to constantly reevaluate decisions based on new information."Nice. But clearly he hasn't read Frank Knight's book "Risk, Uncertainty and Profit" because he describes uncertainty as probability. Environmental managers in the public service take heart, because your boss is comfortable with uncertainty. Grapple with it, please.
Saturday, November 28, 2009
Obama does AM!
From a Washington post article:
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Drew, Thanks for this post. Last week, I taught a little intro into decision-making to the Cheetah Conservation Fund's International Training course for biologists interested in making decisions about cheetahs in Africa and Iran. Six or seven African countries and Iran represented. I used this example, since every loves Obama over here. I also told them that they do the same thing every day---you have guests coming and have limited time to find a 'rare' ingredient for your recipe to feed your guests. Do you go to the grocery store that is closest to you, which past experience suggests doesn't have 'rare' things. Or, do you go to the store that is the farthest from you, but has the best chance of having the ingredient. Obama and food. A good combination.
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